Nate Silver's The Signal and The Noise argues for a Bayesian approach (i.e., thinking probabilistically, making explicit predictions, and gathering "Big Data") to make better predictions. It is limited by the fundamental flaw in the Bayesian paradigm - casual mechanisms are given no weight.
Understanding specific causal mechanisms is one of the biggest "wins" for predication. It is not always possible, but the Bayesian paradigm does not value even trying.
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